Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
